“For the end of 2021 I have become optimistic again, for the first time since the start of the epidemic. “Professor Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist and member of the Scientific Council, saw a glimmer of hope at the microphone of France Inter this December 18. He justifies his confidence for the end of next year by two factors: today we have “the advantage of knowing how to protect yourself“covid-19 and”the scheduled arrival of vaccines “.

Natural and vaccine immunity

Because this way out of the crisis can only be done thanks to immunity against the coronavirus. This immunity can be natural, by a real infection with the virus, with the risk in this case of saturation of the hospital system, serious forms and death. And this immunity takes a long time to be put in place on its own since to date, only 10% of the French population have been infected nationally.

This is why it is better to rely on vaccine immunity. “The vaccine is our best chance to return to normal life“thus supports Professor Fontanet.

At least 50% vaccinated

Provided that a large part of the population adheres to it. Because “As long as half of the population is not immune to this virus, as soon as the pressure is released a little, it begins to circulate again.“For the epidemiologist, at least 50% of the population must therefore be vaccinated to see an effect on the dynamics of the epidemic.

He himself claims that he will be vaccinated because “these vaccines have a very good efficacy” and “the risk-benefit of being vaccinated is in favor of the vaccine “, with about one case of serious side effect in 50,000 vaccinated, he recalls.

We are entering a “risky period”

In the meantime, we must still expect “three difficult months to go through “. Especially as we enter”in a period of risk“warns Arnaud Fontanet.”Christmas shopping is a part, then there is the movement of the population, the mixing of generations and reunions that will take place.“

This is why it is necessary to show increased vigilance during the holiday season. “A reunion is possible if we pay attention to all barrier gestures“, recalls the epidemiologist.

“It has long been known that family-friendly contacts, and without masks, are circumstances of transmission“he recognizes.”We can see each other at Christmas, but not too many (…). Not too many people on the same table, and for the fragile, you have to sit on a table next to it. We ventilate five to 10 minutes every hour“finally specifies the specialist.

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