Favorable conditions for the summerThe optimistic scenario of a summer without an outbreak of covid could be confirmed, according to the latest models of the Institut Pasteur.

According to a study published on May 22, researchers at the Institute’s Infectious Diseases Mathematical Modeling Unit “do not (expect) to see a significant resumption of the epidemic linked to the B.1.1.7 variant this summer“, the British variant currently majority in France.

The critical date of June 9

But this on several conditions. First, that the current rate of decline in the number of new cases and hospitalizations be maintained “until June 9, say specialists.

Then, that the vaccination rate be maintained or even increased by the summer.

Finally, that the conditions for controlling the epidemic be the same as those implemented during the summer of 2020.

Under these conditions, the level of infections in France at the start of the summer will be low enough to “absorb a possible rise in infections during the summer“. And”the release would come at a time when a greater proportion of French people would have been vaccinated“also note the researchers.

To read also: For Arnaud Fontanet, the summer will be “quiet” if we reach 5,000 cases of covid in mid-June

Risk of rebound if the recession stops

However, if these conditions are not met, especially if the epidemic recedes “stops following the second stage of the reopening schedule on May 19 and transmission rates start to rise again“, then the epidemiological situation this summer will be”more uncertain“, note the researchers. And an epidemic rebound could not then be excluded.

But regardless of the transmission rate and vaccination rhythm observed in June in this case, “this rebound would remain smaller than the 3rd wave“, say the specialists.

The fear of new variants

Last unknown: the variants. Because the models of the Institut Pasteur are based on the characteristics of the British variant. But the emergence of variants “which could partially escape the protection conferred by natural infection or vaccination “ could “complicate the situation “.

Continue vaccinations before fall

And after the summer? Caution should be exercised, since “fall and winter are more conducive to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 than summer“recall the researchers.”The fact that the virus circulates little during the summer therefore does not rule out the risk of a resumption this fall.“they continue.

There is only one solution to limit this risk: “maintain the vaccination effort this summer and ensure that a high level of vaccination coverage is reached at the start of the school year“Because even if the epidemiological situation is improving, vaccination remains necessary to fight covid durably, the specialists finally insist.