According to scientists, the English variant of the coronavirus is 50 to 70% more contagious than the original virus. However, the British Prime Minister warned at a press conference on January 22 that in addition to its contagiousness, it could also be more lethal.

Boris Johnson is based on a report by British experts according to which the variant is up to 30% more lethal. According to Patrick Vallance, the scientific adviser to the Prime Minister, “out of 1,000 infected people (…) ten of them risk dying from the original virus, against 13 or 14 people with the new variant”.

Scientific evidence?

Not all experts agree. This excess mortality linked to the English variant has not yet been observed in other European countries where this version of the virus has spread. Then the data used by Boris Johnson is not yet published.

More importantly, other reasons could explain the higher fatality rate seen in the United Kingdom. According to Professor Stéphane Gaudry, resuscitator at the Avicenne hospital in Bobigny, the overload of hospitals could be an element of explanation.

Indeed, the situation in our neighbor from across the Channel is very different from that which we are observing in France at the moment. 38,562 Covid-19 patients were hospitalized on January 22 … This is almost 80% more than during the first peak of the epidemic in the country in April.

If there are fewer caregivers per patient, or fewer machines available for oxygenation, we can assume a loss of opportunity for patients.

A variant that remains worrying

However, the transmissibility of this variant remains much greater than that of the original virus. For Professor Gaudry, it is this information that is the worst news.

Indeed, even if it is not more lethal, if the virus is 50% more contagious, it will mechanically cause many more serious forms, and therefore many more deaths. New studies are expected to be produced soon to determine if this new version of the virus is more deadly.